PROJECT: Macroeconomic Analysis of Public and Private Debt Problems in Vietnam
Time: Jan 2018 – Jan 2020
Funding: Nafosted (National Foundation for Science and Technology Development)
Leader: Cuong Le Van (Paris School of Economics)
Key members: Phan Toan (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond), Manh Hung Nguyen (Toulouse School of Economic), Vo Xuan Hoai (Academy of Policy and Development), Le Van Chon (International University, VNU)
This project aims to develop a theoretical framework as well as an empirical investigation to analyze the link between debt and growth/development for the Vietnamese economy. It will shed light on the several important questions such as: is Vietnam on the right path of sound debt management or is a crisis ultimately inevitable? What are the relevant channels through which indebtedness can negatively affect Vietnam’s economic growth and development? What is the relation of the debt service, public and private debt to growth, and at what rate does it increase the debt level? What would be optimal policies, including but not limited to monetary policies, macroprudential policies and capital controls? The findings of the project are essential for policymakers in Vietnam, as well as policymakers in other emerging economies with high public and private indebtedness.